Greetings. Last week, on 21st July, Norbert Mao, the president of the Democratic Party and the president of Uganda Yoweri Museveni held a press briefing. The pair signed "an agreement of cooperation" between the country's oldest party and the government. In the evening, a photo of a letter appointing Mao as Minister of Justice was circulating on social media. The authenticity of the appointment letter was beyond doubt as it bore the President's seal. The following day Parliament approved Mao's appointment. The sheer speed with which the party president moved from opposition to government left many question marks. A lot has been written exploring Mao's gradual shift towards Museveni/NRM.
The 2022 DP-NRM agreement is not the first time a party has joined the ruling party. However, it's significance is more pronounced considering the part DP has played in shaping opposition politics since independence.
To the economist however, when is the optimal point at which one should "sell" a political party?
The First Party
System
The Democratic
Party and the Uganda People's Congress are remnants of the first party system
in Uganda. The Uganda National Congress (UNC) was the first party formed in
Uganda. The absence of well-defined goals and a clear ideology were major
drawbacks for the party. Louis Tyaaba, a clerk in the Dean of Arts Office at
Makerere University, sought to establish a party with clearly defined goals
among which was fast tracking Uganda towards independence. In 1954, he met with
7 other members and they established the Democratic Party. These were
predominantly Catholic and from the Central region and none held a position in
the Legislative Council at the time.
As the UNC weakened,
a faction emerged around Apollo Milton Obote, the LEGCO representative of Lango.
This faction's merger with Uganda People's Union birthed the Uganda People's
Congress (UPC) in 1960. Whereas DP was founded by non-members of the legislature, UPC
was founded by members of the LEGCO including WW Nadiope and CJ Obwangor.
Benedicto Kiwanuka
was elected the third DP president in 1958, and in 1961 he led the party to
victory in the 1961 General Election. Kiwanuka became the Chief Minister of
Uganda, and when the country was granted self-governance in March 1962, he became
the first Prime Minister. At the next general election in April that year, the
party lost its Parliamentary majority, and the UPC/KY Alliance came into power.
Thus, begun the party's long tenure in the opposition.
The First "Transfer
Window"
Nine months after
the granting of Independence, six MPs of the Kabaka Yekka party joined the UPC.
The significance of the move was that it granted UPC a majority (43 out of 82
seats), and rendered the coalition meaningless.
After the 1962 DP
presidential election, there was a rift in the party between the Kiwanuka
faction and the Basil Bataringaya faction. Basil was an MP and Leader of
Opposition who believed the party should be led by an MP. He lost the
party presidency election to Kiwanuka, and in 1964 he joined UPC along with 5 MPs
from his party. As his reward, he was appointed Minister of Internal Affairs.
The 1963 and 1964
defections by MPs to UPC provide some insights on the payoffs to transfers. For
the ruling party, it gets to grow its majority and smooth their legislative
agenda. For the individual MP, the reward of a ministerial position and its
perks (salary and allowances) was something worth the transfer. Bataringaya was
appointed a Minister of Internal Affairs, in which capacity he constantly
sanctioned the arrests of his former Opposition Colleagues. It is not entirely a positive sum game as the party that suffers defection has to contend with reigning in the loyalties of the remaining members.
Therefore, the incentives to transfer from an opposition party to the governing party are well established.
The Market for
Political Parties
The current regime's political ideology had no room for a plural political system. From the beginning they favoured a "Movement System" with Parliament operating in the absence of political parties. In 2005, they relented and through a referendum restored the Multiparty system. In the 2006 election, Norbert Mao ran successfully on the DP ticket as Chairman of Gulu District, and DP collected 8 seats in Parliament with FDC garnering 37 seats and thus emerging as the main opposition party.
Between 2006 and
2021, FDC emerged as the main opposition party, averaging 35 seats. However, this pushed DP further to the periphery of Uganda
politics. In the three elections before 2021, DP won a total of 27 seats,
way below the lowest return of FDC in any parliamentary election during that
run (34 in 2011).
DP reached their
maximum share of Opposition seats (in modern times at least) in the 2016
parliamentary elections, with 15 seats (26.32% share of the opposition). In neoclassical
economic parlance, there's a tendency for economic agents to make decisions at
optimisation points. For instance, individuals seeking to maximise utility or
firms producing at a point where their costs are minimised/ profits maximised.
For the market of
political parties, when DP maximised its share of the opposition Mao turned to
the sole "buyer" in this market. The rise of the National Unity Platform (NUP)
meant the influence of DP in opposition politics was well and truly over, at
least for now. Mao found it imperative to cash out and bargain for a ministerial
position.
Now with the
market having one buyer, he retains a lot of power in terms of price and the
party he chooses to buy. The ruling party might be anti-opposition but they are
not willing to merge with any political party that is open to working with
them. Share of opposition is the price mechanism in this case.
There is obvious concern when one ponders the gradual decline of DP. One wonders whether NUP would at a future date seek
a "cooperation deal" after maximising its share of the opposition. Irrespective
of the likelihood of this happening or not, Hon. Joel Ssenyonyi (Nakawa West/NUP), provided some important wisdom when pressed about the matter,
"Even if Ugandans woke up and all of us opposition leaders have crossed to NRM, it doesn't matter because the challenges of Ugandans remain. Ugandans will form new leadership among themselves. When an opposition leader crosses to NRM, there can be a dent, but there can never be a [power] vacuum."
Ceteris. Paribus.
References
Bagala, A., (22nd
July 2022). "The making of Mao-Museveni marriage," The Daily
Monitor.
Lwanga-Lunyiigo, S.,
(2015). A History of the Democratic Party of Uganda: The First Thirty Years
(1954-1984). Kampala, Fountain Publishers.
