On Rain, Rwomushana and Malthus

“We have destroyed nature, and now it is destroying us back. That is how the World reaches equilibrium.”

- Charles Rwomushana

The recent spate of rainfall in Uganda is the most devastating in recent history. The death toll keeps rising (at 36 as of 10th December), both in the western and eastern parts of the country, and the property destroyed worth millions.
 

On Tuesday night, it was the topic for discussion on NBS’ Barometer. The panellists included Irene (a representative of the Uganda Red Cross), Hon. Simewo Nsubuga, Michael Lubega from the Meteorology Department at Makerere, as well as social commentators Charles Rwomushana and Aisha Kabanda.

A key takeaway came from Rwomushana’s interpretation of our current climate predicament. As per his submission, Lubega’s (or the Meteorology department’s) equipment cannot predict this kind of weather [although the Meteorology department had delivered a report, dated 4^th September, warning the general public of what we are experiencing now]. He suggested however that it was due to the persistent destruction of the natural environment. Uganda’s forest cover has reduced greatly over the last decade, to less than 40% of what it was. The recent weather conditions, and its subsequent destruction of property and lives, is the wrath of mother nature.

His assessment is akin to Rev. Thomas Malthus postulates from over two centuries ago. Malthus pointed out that population grows at a geometric rate, whereas food production (a measure of welfare in a way) only grows at an arithmetic rate; in summary increase in food production is not sufficient to support the high growth of population. Two kinds of checks would bring the population within the bounds of the available resources; the benevolent preventive checks like lower birth rate and celibacy, and the aggressive positive checks, that encompass hunger, famine, pestilence and war, basically translating into misery. 

Rwomushana agrees with the aggressive positive checks, considering that the recorded death toll from the third quarter rains translates into misery – recompense for our disregard for the environment.

“The superior power of population cannot be checked without producing misery or vice.”

Malthus, 1798, An Essay on the Principles of Population.

What can we do

Perhaps it’s time we actually paid closer attention to the ramblings of the weathermen. The private citizens can read it for their personal planning and vigilance. Because the politicians will not be reading it anytime soon.

Ceteris Paribus.

References

* Try to read the weather report, it’s released on a quarterly basis.

* Malthus, Thomas (1798). An Essay on the Principles of Population. Penguin Classics.