Blogs for the Economist

Greetings.

Day 9 of the #UgBlogMonth challenge requires that we share our favourite blogs. Two blogs and two  weekly columns come to mind. One I don't read very much, but because the writer usually presents an opinion that is antithesis to my own (as well as that of one of the other blogs on this list) it's only fair that I share it in true intellectual spirit.

1. Foresight by Dr. Ibrahim Mike Okumu

Dr. Okumu is a Senior Lecturer at Makerere's School of economics, and possibly the only blogging academic in the country. He provides an in-depth analysis of key issues that are very relevant to Uganda and developing countries in general.

2. Greg Mankiw's Blog

With a tag line, "Random Observations for Students of Economics", Gregory Mankiw provides a neoclassical analysis of key global economics issues; his perspective is center-right. He was an economics advisor to George W. Bush.

3. Paul Krugman's Column

Paul Krugman provides a counter opinion to that of Mankiw; he's an opponent of tax cuts which Mankiw is in support of. Krugman is an economist in the Keynesian mold, and his column is published thrice a week.

4. Niall Ferguson's Column 

I've previously mentioned Niall Ferguson's book and recommended his Docuseries, Networld. In his column, published every Sunday in The Times (and Mondays in The Boston Globe), Ferguson provides lessons from the past to guide understanding of our current global economy.

PS: One must be a subscribing member in order to gain full access to The Times and The Sunday Times articles. However, if one registers one is entitled to 4 free articles per month. There's a fellow who spends all his free articles on Ferguson; be like that fellow.

Bonus: Black Econ Girl

For some reason they've not posted new material in the last two year.


Ceteris Paribus.

On Books That Have Shaped Me

Greetings.
It was bound to happen that some days of the #UgBlogMonth Challenge would be skipped. However, on the third day we are expected to present our favourite books. That might be too much of a challenge for me. So I'll flip the topic and list some books that have shaped my world view.
I'd like to point out I do not read a lot of novels. I mainly dabble in the "boring" ancient texts and history.

Arthur Conan Doyle's A Study in Scarlet

Robert Downey Jr's movies of the great detective (especially the Moriarty character) inspired me to seek out the Sherlock books. A Study in Scarlet is the first in the series, and the pseudo monologue in which Sherlock explains his "Science of deduction" was one of my best parts about the book. From deduction I appreciated the importance of data collection and the scientific method.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment."

Niall Ferguson's The House of Rothschild

The Rothschild family were the biggest players in the nineteenth century bond market, and subsequently shaped the modern financial system. Ferguson also debunks some of the conspiracies surrounding the Rothschild family, mostly fueled by anti-semitism. My interest in economic history began with this book, and I've had to seek out other texts in Economic history like Ferguson's The Ascent of Money and Friedman's The Great Contraction.

"Rothschild . . . destroyed the predominance of land, by raising the system of state bonds to supreme power, thereby mobilising property and income and at the same time endowing money with the previous privileges of the land."

Robert Greene's The 48 Laws of Power

I forget which brother provided me with a soft copy to this book, but I recall it was among the first books I read during the A'Level vacation. Greene, like Ferguson, is an impressive researcher, and he draws on examples from texts spanning over 2,000 years of human history to make his case for laws governing strategy and man management. Once I put down this book, I sought out texts written by Herodotus, Plutarch, Miyamoto Musashi, Ovid, inter alia. This ignited my interest in classical literature.

"When you meet a swordsman, draw your sword: Do not recite poetry to one who is not a poet."

Miyamoto Musashi's The Book of Five Rings 

Miyamoto was a Japanese samurai who published his principles on strategy and honour in this text. Honour and Bushido are important to the Japanese, and any gentleman as well. Bushido code is akin to Japanese chivalry, if one may call it that. From this book, at one point I was reading haikus, although I'm yet to complete The Book of Tea.

"... there is timing in the Way of the merchant, in the rise and fall of capital. All things entail rising and falling timing."

Mathias Semakula Kiwanuka's A History of Buganda Kingdom

I read this some two years ago, as part of research for a book in which Kiwanuka was one of the subjects. The book questions some preconceived origins of the kingdom, especially those set forth by the colonial writers. From this I proceeded to seek out other texts by Ugandans (and Africans); Karugire's A Political History of Uganda (I've blogged about his description of pre-colonial trade) and Kaggwa's The Customs.

"... the growth of knowledge is after all a matter of historical recovery."

Ceteris Paribus.

#UgBlogMonth: Why Do I Write?

Greetings.
The #UgBlogMonth challenge landed in my inbox. A lot of great themes for one to write about. However - blame it on writers' block or downright procrastination- I don't think I'll be capable of posting a piece on a daily. I'll attempt to write as much as I can though.

Why do I write?

Frankly, this can be narrowed down to two basic reasons.

My primary goal for writing is "narcissism", for lack of a better way to put it. It's an opportunity to gain an excessive interest in my own opinion, and share that opinion with the rest of the world, on my terms.

The lesser reason for writing is how terrible I was at summarizing, as far back as the O'Level English exam section on summarizing. Part of me believed the information was very important, and I always believed in giving as much important information as possible. I therefore write as a challenge to myself, to provide essential information via the shortest route possible.
Perhaps it's the ghost of Narcissus in me that makes it difficult to breakdown information to essential details. I can only hope for a better fate than what Nemesis had in store for Narcissus.

Ceteris Paribus.

Reference
Ovid's Metamorphoses. Translated by Dryden et al; London, 1815

Reading (or Listening) Recommendations for the Lockdown

Greetings. It’s barely two weeks since our first confirmed case of Covid-19 and the country is in total lockdown after a series of presidential directives. The situation is very pressing to sole proprietors, small businesses and large corporate organisations. Several countries are on lock-down as well, and boy, do the LDC economies (and formerly LDC economies) love aggressive implementation of these directives. There are several videos and news stories circulating of how the lock-down and preventive measures are being implemented; from spraying chemicalsupon migrant workers in India to caning passengers in Uganda.

As we attempt to stay home and keep everyone safe, I have listed some recommended reading, video and audio material relevant (or not) for this period.

Reading materials

Buganda n’Ensimbi Zaayo by Ernest Bakaluba (translated as Buganda and its Systems of Currency). Published in 1958, the 20-page monograph details the evolution of the currency system in Buganda prior to the advent of the colonial-era rupee. From the sanga (ivory bead), to the nsinda (blue bead), and then finally to the cowrie shells. The writer also gives a conversion rate i.e. 1 nsinda was equivalent to 100 cowrie shells, etc. Luckily today in this pandemic scare, mobile money and other modern financial innovations make it possible to access money at a time when the dreaded disease could be transmitted through exchange of physical cash. 

However, Eagle Press, the publisher of the text, is no longer in existence and the only two surviving copies in the public domain can be accessed at the Africana Collection of the Makerere University Library …. I guess you have to read this once the pandemic has been mitigated.

Financialliberalisation and its implications for the domestic financial system by Michael Atingi-Ego and Louis Kasekende. Earlier this week, President Museveni appointed Dr. Atingi-Ego as the new deputy governor at the Bank of Uganda. The world of PhD-level economists in Uganda is a very small club and as such he replaces a man he has previously collaborated with on three scholarly articles, Dr. Louis Kasekende. 

Their 2003 paper published by the African Economic Research Consortium, surveyed the effects of financial liberalisation on the banking sector (conducted after the privatisation of Uganda Commercial Bank), and recommended the linking of the banking sector with the micro-credit institutions. In the following year, the Financial Institutions Act and the Microfinance Insitutions Act were enacted, with no less a referral than the two scholars. These pieces of legislation stipulated the categorisation of institutions under the bank of Uganda’s supervision, including commercial banks (tier I), credit institutions (tier II) and micro-deposit institutions (tier III).

Podcasts

50 Things That Made theModern Economy: Episode 12 – Antibiotics. The BBC is a treasure for podcasts, covering current affairs, documentaries business, history and drama. This particular podcast series tells the stories of inventions, ideas and innovations which have helped create the modern economy,condensed in sub-10 minute episodes. The episode on “Antobiotics” is very relevant in our hygiene-conscious times, charting the evolution of antibiotics and why today more antibiotics are injected in healthy animals than sick humans. 

Documentary Series

Networld by Niall Ferguson. The self-proclaimed “international man of history” has an interesting timing of his documentaries. The Ascent of Money (adopted from his book) was published around the time of the 2008 financial crisis, detailing the evolution of money and its role in business and politics. In this three-part documentary series, released in March as the Covid-19 epidemic was taking root, Ferguson explores the role of human behaviour, disruptive technology and the profit motive in changing our world. 

Adopted from his 2015 book, The Square and the Tower, Ferguson highlights how every individual has a personal social network and this will determine the probability of getting sick during this period.

Ceteris Paribus.

Peasants Are Winning In This Coronavirus Economy, Or Not

Greetings. These are dark times we are yet to live in. All our territorial neighbours have reported cases of people testing positive for coronavirus, the root cause of the Covid-19 pandemic. Kudos to the government for taking measures to prevent the spread before the disease even lands in the country. A directive has been issued for the closure of education institutions, from primary up to the tertiary level. The impact on business has been well documented in the media; rising prices of hand sanitizers, a decline in imports, etc. To the thousands who will be sitting at home, not contributing productively to the economy, it will be an interesting time to get to know one’s landlord. How do you say “there won’t be rent money this month” in your mother tongue?

When one sits at home, one needs to stock up on domestic supplies to last for the duration of the self-isolation period. A granary is right now looking like a viable storage option. Perhaps one might focus on the people who still use granaries for storage. This demographic consists of peasants. Peasants engage in agriculture on a small scale, the text book definition goes further to add that they produce using rudimentary methods and consume their own produce. In summary, peasants are in a closed economy; no need to purchase from other members as the matooke and beans they plant prove sufficient for lunch and supper when cooked, as well as breakfast when in cold power mode!

As formal sector people look likely to sit at home during this self-isolation period, for peasants it is business as usual. They will still get up early in the morning to attack the gardens or guide the cattle up the hill to graze, and then visit the village bar in the evenings for a few swigs of the local brew. However, will these efforts (the former and less of the latter) be factored into the gross domestic product calculations? At the end of the corona pandemic (if it does end when we are still here), the economy will be hard hit; general decline is predicted. It is quite telling that, in the event of a lock-down, the economy will have declined despite over 50% of the population engaged in agriculture will have largely continued to partake in “productive” work. As a matter of fact, any income inequality gap closed by the peasantry in the month of lock-down will be quickly returned to the old order within a week of working by the formal sector.

We have a betting problem

Prescheduled events have also been hit hard, with several sports and entertainment events cancelled. The European football leagues have been suspended; rugby’s oldest championship has had to postpone several games for the first time in its 132-year history, for a reason other than war. Spare a thought for an industry, that depends on these pre-scheduled events; betting. Betting, especially on the African continent is hugely dependent on football. The football calendar is designed in such a way that there’s almost a game of football every day.

Perhaps it’s high time betting companies lowered their dependence on sports. The betting companies in developed companies, originally called bookmakers, can give odds on more than sports; probably some have listed odds on how long the coronavirus outbreak will last. For the sake of survival, their developing economy counterparts should follow the same path. Betting on eSports is one option; even in a lockdown AcePro Gaming in Kenya can still partake in online Tekken tournaments. I for one I’m willing to bet, despite all their hard work during (if we do go under) lock-down, the peasants will not close that income gap!

Ceteris Paribus.

The Day After Women’s Day

The day after Women’s Day we get back to work and resume our daily routines. In some cases, the festivities of the day before are forgotten and buried deep, waiting for the 365-day cycle to conclude and then we recover them. Key observations I made while I attended Church on 8^th March.[1]

While in church, the preacher on the day referred to the day as one “for commemorating mothers”. We already have a day for celebrating the role of women as mothers. And in line with that Valentine’s day should cover the celebration of women in their role as wives or girlfriends. Slay queens have their birthdays so a special holiday is a huge waste of tax payer oxygen. Back to the preacher, this got me thinking, how we lose track of the essence of women’s day; it is about recognizing the professional achievements of women.

Adele Aredo and Lady Rugby Cranes player, Emily Lekuru

 

Why? Well, for centuries, the roles of mother and wife women have played greatly and the technology advancements at the time dictated that it would prove difficult to have a career. When contraceptive methods advanced (as well as formalized education being broadened to include women), it made it possible for woman to pursue a career. For that reason, every once a year it is reasonable to have a day to gauge how far women have come in terms of catching up with their male counterparts.

It is common in LDCs, as evidenced from Sunday’s preacher, to focus on women’s achievements in the field of motherhood and as marriage partners. In advanced economies, however, perhaps because these economies led the revolution in the methods that have enables women pursue careers, they do focus on the progress of women in the professional field and the growth in the number of opportunities available to them.

What can we learn from one rugby player

The Uganda Rugby Union is one of the sports bodies in this country in charge of men and women’s teams that are both ranked in the top 10 across the continent. Joseph Aredo has played for the men’s teams in both the XVs and 7-a-side versions of the game, and represented Kobs RFC in the Premiership since 2011. He recognized the “barriers broken by women in the sports arena” citing some of the members on the Women’s national team. Even more importantly is how he chooses to include tag rugby amongst the opportunities available to his daughter. Every Saturday morning, he takes his three-year old daughter to partake in the tag rugby drills at Legends Rugby Club. Not many parents provide tag rugby, let alone a sport, as part of the leisure activities available to girls.

Joseph Aredo is celebrating women for breaking barriers, and providing opportunities in sports for the next generation of women! Who knew the son of Mileke was a feminist!

Ceteris Paribus

Further Reading

Joseph Aredo’s social media page would make for a good recommendation, but he had a stalker once on Twitter. Let’s behave while we’re there.

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[1] In my articles when I write “attend(ed) church”, this is usually restricted to the Roman Catholic and Church of Uganda designated places of worship. However, if I mention “churches these days”, even an advanced diviner’s dwelling is included. For example, I’m working on an article regarding the “Market for Demons” à la Akerlof, and this will be clearly observed once it comes out.

When Is Inequality "Inequality"?

8^th March is the annual day to recognise the role of women in society and also remind society to push for greater participation of women in key roles in society and the economy. Today, more women are employed in various industries and jobs than any other time in history, however some experts believe that more can be done to address this inequality. An often cited statistic is how much income women earn compared to their male counterparts (79% for every $1 earned by a man).

The push for equality and bridging the gender pay gap is usually concentrated in the formal sector. Through regulation, companies can be given directives on a certain quota of women to employ in key leadership positions which they can easily comply to. Uganda’s parliament has a woman member of parliament for each of the 120 districts, ranking it 32^nd (out of 153 countries surveyed) in female representation in parliament.

In the informal sector, we have most of the groceries sold in markets in stalls operated by women, as well as majority of the work in subsistence agriculture and restaurants being done by women. A great deal of this income (if not all of it) goes to women. One might say men are underrepresented here, and still the programs and policies in the informal sector tend to target women more than the men. Well, the overall income level in such a sector is very low.

On the point of restaurants, it is curious that high end restaurants (if not most restaurants) usually have a male head chef (mostly assisted by a male sous chef); for an activity that women have done for centuries free of charge.

There’s one part of the informal dining sector that has limited participation of women. I often like using the Rolex industry as a case.

In all Kampala suburbs one is bound to find a Rolex joint or several joints, some neighbouring one another. These small establishments are operated by young men; I’ve never encountered one operated by a woman in the last 9 years. This translates into 100% of the income from this industry going to the men.

Comparing two individuals, one in the formal sector (at a bank) and the other in the informal sector (say a trader in groceries). The banker would get her salary at a specified date at the end of every month, plus some perks that include health insurance, annual leave, maternity leave and an end of year bonus. These benefits enable her to lower the cost of health care and enjoy deserved rest that enables her be more productive. The informal sector female workers will not enjoy the same privileges; her healthcare costs have to be fully covered by her income, and any leave days she takes translate into income lost. For this observation, proponents of equal pay would push for more formal sector representation of women, and make a less fuss about how many women are participating in the Rolex industry.

But the conversion from informal sector to formal sector is a function of education. Formal sector jobs are highly human capital intensive, and this human capital is a result of education. It should come as no surprise that a female applicant to a public university will get an extra 1.5 points. For a time though, this system rendered the Makerere Law School a female-dominated portion of the campus. No one batted an eye as to the inequality the boy-child was facing!

Ceteris Paribus.

Further Reading
World Economic Forum. (2020). The Global Gender Gap Report World Economic Forum.
Patience Ahimbisibwe (April 2019). "The Scuffle for Tickets to Makerere's Law School," in The Daily Monitor.
Rafaella Asio & Mubatsi A. Habatsi (June 2009). To Keep or End 1.5 free points for Varsity girls? in The Independent.